A new study conducted by WatchDog.MD and Zona de Securitate, partners of the Independent Countering Disinformation Centre (ICDC), examines public perceptions in the Transnistrian region following the 2025 energy crisis and in the run-up to Moldova’s parliamentary elections on 28 September. The findings reveal a complex reality marked by distrust, uncertainty, and constant exposure to manipulation campaigns.

Key Concerns: poverty, fear of another crisis, and uncertainty

More than half of respondents believe that life in the Transnistrian region is heading “in the wrong direction.” The top concerns are low incomes (salaries and pensions), the risk of another energy crisis that could force residents to leave the region, and uncertainty about the region’s future and political status.

Who is to blame for the energy crisis?

Four in ten residents believe that both the Russian Federation and the Republic of Moldova played a negative role in the January–February 2025 energy crisis. Ukraine and local leaders are also mentioned as responsible. Despite Russia’s central role, many justify its actions, claiming that “the tap was in Chișinău.” At the same time, one in three residents perceives Russia as a threat to the region’s stability.

Distrust toward both banks of the Nistru

The study highlights widespread distrust in political leaders on both banks of the river. Only 24% of respondents feel represented by President Maia Sandu, and just 18% by Moldova’s Parliament. Leaders in the Transnistrian region fare no better, with both Vadim Krasnoselski and the local administration holding disapproval ratings above 50%.

September 2025 Elections: a right, but not an interest

Although over 60% of residents believe they have the right to participate in Moldova’s parliamentary elections, most remain uninformed about political parties and candidates and show little interest in the campaign. Young people are the least engaged, while ethnic Russians are the most motivated to vote, seeking to “influence” politics on the right bank.

Reintegration: necessity or desire?

Around 45% of respondents say they would vote for the reintegration of the Transnistrian region with Moldova. However, the study points at a paradox: many residents identify as Moldovan citizens only when it brings them benefits. Chișinău is perceived as “obliged” to provide economic support, while residents feel little responsibility to assume the role of Moldovan citizens if it does not align with their personal interests.

Conclusion

The findings reflect a complicated landscape: generalized distrust, contradictory perceptions of Russia and Chișinău, and a lack of civic interest in the Transnistrian region. With only days to go before Moldova’s parliamentary elections on 28 September 2025, these realities raise questions about the future of relations between the two banks of the Nistru and the prospects for genuine reintegration.

For more details, see the full press release here.